Analysis shows that Europe’s decision to replace Russian gas with US liquefied natural gas has left the EU and UK increasingly dependent on American energy supplies, giving Donald Trump significant leverage.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions on pipeline gas, imports of US LNG to the European Economic Area surged, now accounting for the majority of EU LNG and a large share of UK gas imports.
The shift carries political and economic risks, as Trump has adopted a more protectionist, interest-driven strategy that explicitly frames energy exports as a means of projecting US power. Recent threats to impose tariffs on European allies over issues such as Greenland highlight how energy dependence could be used as a bargaining tool. Experts warn that low gas reserves and potential tensions with Washington could push up prices and trigger a serious energy crisis, particularly in a cold winter.
Europe can reduce its political vulnerability by accelerating investment in renewable, domestically-sourced energy systems, experts say.
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