Iran’s leadership is increasingly anxious that U.S. threats may be credible, especially after Washington’s recent actions against Venezuela, its own brief war with Israel, U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, and the weakening of Iran-backed militias across the Middle East.
These developments may have convinced Tehran that the United States could strike Iran without fearing serious retaliation. President Donald Trump has strongly influenced the regime’s calculations, repeatedly warning that the U.S. would respond forcefully if Iranian authorities killed peaceful protesters.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has also issued strong warnings, promising that the Islamic Republic “will not back down in the face of vandals”. In a speech on Friday he said the protests were foreign-inspired sabotage.
While it is unclear whether these warnings explain the current response, security forces in Tehran appear relatively restrained, even as repression outside the capital has been rapid and deadly. Overall, the regime seems to be buying time by limiting visible bloodshed, exhausting protesters, and avoiding actions that could trigger direct foreign intervention. Meanwhile, the death toll rose to 62.
Ayatollah Khamenei
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